Defensive Impact
Are defenders making opponents miss? We compare actual shooting percentages to what we'd expect based on shot location and the shooter's season averages.
SAS Defense vs NYK
| Zone | FGA | FGM | FG% | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted Area | 67 | 29 | 43.3% | -22.7% |
| Mid-Range | 25 | 10 | 40.0% | -1.0% |
| Above Break 3 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | -0.7% |
| Paint (Non-RA) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -42.0% |
| Left Corner 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | -39.0% |
Defense Rating: Excellent Average Poor
NYK Defense vs SAS
| Zone | FGA | FGM | FG% | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above Break 3 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | -4.6% |
| Restricted Area | 57 | 24 | 42.1% | -23.9% |
| Mid-Range | 24 | 9 | 37.5% | -3.5% |
| Right Corner 3 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | -5.7% |
| Paint (Non-RA) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -42.0% |
Defense Rating: Excellent Average Poor
Expected vs Actual
SAS Defense
| Opponent | NYK |
| Shots allowed | 130 |
| Points allowed | 110.0 |
| Expected points | 150.0 |
| Delta | -40.0 |
NYK Defense
| Opponent | SAS |
| Shots allowed | 120 |
| Points allowed | 101.0 |
| Expected points | 137.1 |
| Delta | -36.1 |
How we calculate this
We estimate "expected points" based on each shot's location and the shooter's season averages. A negative delta means the defense held opponents below expectations.
- Zone FG% = Made shots ÷ Attempted shots per zone
- Expected = Shot value × Player's baseline FG% for that zone
- Delta = Actual − Expected (negative = good defense)
Note: True defensive impact requires tracking data (Second Spectrum) for matchup-level analysis. This uses shot zones as a proxy.