Defensive Impact
Are defenders making opponents miss? We compare actual shooting percentages to what we'd expect based on shot location and the shooter's season averages.
NYK Defense vs SAS
| Zone | FGA | FGM | FG% | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted Area | 60 | 27 | 45.0% | -21.0% |
| Above Break 3 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | -0.1% |
| Mid-Range | 20 | 9 | 45.0% | +4.0% |
| Right Corner 3 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | +27.7% |
| Left Corner 3 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | +61.0% |
Defense Rating: Excellent Average Poor
SAS Defense vs NYK
| Zone | FGA | FGM | FG% | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Range | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | -9.0% |
| Restricted Area | 59 | 33 | 55.9% | -10.1% |
| Above Break 3 | 27 | 13 | 48.1% | +12.1% |
| Left Corner 3 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | +11.0% |
| Right Corner 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -39.0% |
Defense Rating: Excellent Average Poor
Expected vs Actual
NYK Defense
| Opponent | SAS |
| Shots allowed | 123 |
| Points allowed | 121.0 |
| Expected points | 142.4 |
| Delta | -21.4 |
SAS Defense
| Opponent | NYK |
| Shots allowed | 116 |
| Points allowed | 123.0 |
| Expected points | 133.4 |
| Delta | -10.4 |
How we calculate this
We estimate "expected points" based on each shot's location and the shooter's season averages. A negative delta means the defense held opponents below expectations.
- Zone FG% = Made shots ÷ Attempted shots per zone
- Expected = Shot value × Player's baseline FG% for that zone
- Delta = Actual − Expected (negative = good defense)
Note: True defensive impact requires tracking data (Second Spectrum) for matchup-level analysis. This uses shot zones as a proxy.